Wednesday, December 31, 2003
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Merely the first post of 2004 (Eastern Standard Time)
Update 6/12/07: Welcome, Daily Dish readers! The Pynchon excerpt is here. Another Pynchon-related post here.
9:07 PM
Tuesday, December 30, 2003
THE USA TODAY ARTICLE
As you probably already know, USA Today has a front-page article on blogging today. I thought it was a pretty good article...
but...
the focus seemed to be mainly on bloggers who are interested in what has sometimes been called the "inside baseball" view of politics--ie, the mechanics--who's winning, who's losing, what are the strategies and tactics. In pointing out that the influence of bloggers will probably be far greater than might be guessed simply from the numbers of their readers, the article gives as a reason that the blog audience "tends to be an elite crowd of political junkies."
I'm sure there are many political junkies among blog readers, but that's not the big story. To me, the big story is that there are large numbers of bloggers and blog readers who are actually interested in the underlying issues, not just in the political gamesmanship. There are many in the blogosphere who care passionately about terrorism/Iraq/economics/civil liberties, but who would quickly fall asleep over any discussion of (say) delegate counts for the primaries.
And that's one of the main things that distinguishes weblogs from the typical inside-the-beltway TV talk show--as well as from much newspaper coverage.
2:33 PM
SECURITY OR ABUSE?
We want TSA screeners to be attentive, eagle-eyed, and hard-nosed. But there is a point at which security becomes simply an excuse for bullying.
Read the tale of a fish named Osama Fin Laden.
(hat tip: Kimberly Swygert)
2:15 PM
BOOK REVIEW: The Logic of Failure
Dietrich Doerner.....Rating: 4 Stars
In any bookstore, you will find dozens or even hundreds of books devoted to "success." In this book, Dietrich Doerner works the other side of this street. He studies failure. Doerner, a professor of Psychology at the University of Bamberg (Germany) uses empirical methods to study human decision-making processes, with an emphasis on understanding the ways in which these processes can go wrong. His work should be read by anyone with a responsibility for making decisions, particularly complex and important decisions. (more)
6:44 AM
Monday, December 29, 2003
GETTING BRANDED
Some Chinese companies are no longer content to be the manufacturer in the background behind someone else's products. They are acquiring recognizable brand names--either via licensing or by acquiring an American or European company--and taking on the responsibility for marketing and product design. (This from The Wall Street Journal, 12/26)
Techtronic Industries, located in Hong Kong, had been making Dirt Devil vacuum cleaners for Royal Appliance, even since that company stopped building them in Cleveland. When a major investor in Royal wanted to cash out, Techtronic made an offer and wound up buying the company. The Journal article mentions several other examples of similar transactions.
Psychologically speaking, from the standpoint of the management of a Chinese company, this kind of thing is probably difficult to resist. It can be frustrating to be the anonymous manufacturer of someone else's product--you will always be seeing things you think they could be doing better, whether it's the way the product is designed, or the way it's marketed. It's very tempting to integrate forward in the value chain and take it all on yourself.
But is it good business? In some cases, certainly. When things work out right, you can improve margins and build a more sustainable competitive position. But there are downsides and risks. Once you have your own brand in the U.S. market, companies with competing brands are unlikely to turn to you for outsourced manufacturing. And there are skills in end-user marketing and in product design that may be new to your company. You will also have increased exposure to certain risks, from market trends to transportation costs.
In general, this kind of forward integration seems to run contrary to the trend toward value-chain disaggregation (different companies doing different parts of the process) which has been ongoing for some time in many different industries.
It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out. And this points out once again that a common view on outsourced manufacturing ("let other countries do the repetitive stuff and we will focus on the creative aspects") may be more than a little naive.
1:54 PM
DUMB COMPANY TRICKS
Irritating On-Line Ads
Dear Yahoo:
I do a lot of investing, in stocks, bonds, and other assets. For first-pass information gathering on stocks, and for ongoing updates, I like your site. It pulls together a lot of information in a convenient manner.
But the flashing ads that you have recently introduced simply drive me crazy. It's hard to concentrate on serious analysis with an ongoing carnival atmosphere on the page.
Keep it up, and I may have to look elsewhere. I expect that there are other serious investors who feel the same way.
1:16 PM
Sunday, December 28, 2003
LETTING THE TROOPS DOWN--AGAIN
The Washington Post reports that Army Reserve units are being sent to Iraq without adequate armor protection for their vehicles. One reserve unit, the 428th Transportation Company (Jefferson City, Missouri) has taken matters into their own hands. A local business donated money to buy 13,000 pounds of steel plate, and another business donated the labor for the fabrication work.
However, the Army may or may not permit the soldiers to actually fasten the armor to the vehicles. Some of their reasons are stupid ("policy") and some of them are possibly valid (too much weight could damage the suspensions and cripple the vehicles.) But the real question, of course, is this: why hasn't the Army already provided and delivered a solution to the armor problem?
In every war, of course, there are shortages and deficiencies, and it is not realistic to expect instant perfection. I've read that early in WWII, some fighter pilots had to improvise their own armor by purchasing heavy frying pans and locating them strategically around the cockpit.
But in WWII, the U.S. seemed to move much more quickly in solving problems of this kind than we seem to be doing now. (See this post for another example of a current supply problem.) Have we a society become so enamoured of the universe of words--argument, litigation, analysis, theory--that we have lost some of our edge when it comes to actually making things happen? Let's hope not.
In any event, something has to be done to insure that problems such as this are addressed with an appropriate sense of urgency. As I've previously suggested: President Bush should establish a new position--Director of Industrial Mobilization--with a broad, cross-organizational scope of oversight and authority. The job: insure that we have the equipment and supplies that we need for the war on terrorism--whether it's X-ray equipment for baggage screening, explosive-sniffing dogs, armor for vehicles, or medical supplies for injured troops. There are any number of experienced and respected executives who would, if asked, serve in such a position--and who could make a significant difference.
(see also this post from a soldier serving in Iraq)
11:36 AM
Friday, December 26, 2003
THE FOUNDATIONS OF BIGOTRY?
Read this Wall Street Journal editorial on Ford Foundation funding of dubious Palestinian (and other Arab) organizations. The editorial cites Edwin Black (a writer for the Jewish Telegraphic Agency) as reporting that some of this funding went to those who transformed the UN conference at Durban into an anti-Semitic and anti-American hatefest. (Durban was so bad that Colin Powell ordered the American delegation to return home.)
To quote the editorial directly: Among the noisiest of these recipients was the Palestinian Committee for the Protection of Human Rights and the Environment (LAW), which since 1997 has received $1.1 million from Ford. Mr. Black reports that LAW's officers assumed leadership positions on the Durban steering committees that were instrumental in making the thrust of that conference an international indictment of the state of Israel.
Or take PNGO--an umbrella group of 90 Palestinian NGOs that's also received more than $1 million from Ford. Its director is quoted as admitting that PNGO gets almost no Arab support and that Ford is its biggest funder. Yet this is the same group that denounced as "unacceptable" a U.S. government requirement that Palestinian NGOs partnering with tax-exempt American charities sign a pledge promising that no funds would ever find their way to "advocate or support terrorist activities."
Ford Foundation, of course, claims to abhor any anti-Semitism, and says the funding of such organizations represents only a fraction of what is really a broad Ford effort to build a moderate Palestinian civil society. But, according to the WSJ, the Jewish weekly Forward raised issues about Ford's funding policies back in 1999--"Nothing happened," says the Journal. "The difference today is a post-9/11 environment, where the combination of press exposure and Congressional pressure has made it harder for Ford to look the other way."
The editorial also raises a broader issue: Foundations are a growing part of U.S. life and are playing an ever larger role in political debate. Under current law they are also tax subsidized for eternity. Congress hasn't revisited that policy since 1981, and it's about time it did.
1:47 PM
Wednesday, December 24, 2003
A CHRISTMAS READING
I've always liked this passage from Thomas Pynchon's great novel Gravity's Rainbow, and thought I would pass it along (in highly excerpted form).
The setting: it is the grim winter of 1944, just before Christmas. The military situation in Europe is not good, and WWII seems as if it will never end. London is under attack by V-2 rockets and V-1 cruise missiles (as they would be called today.) Roger and Jessica, two of the main characters, are driving in a rural area in England and come upon a church where carols are being sung. They decide to go inside.
They walked through the tracks of all the others in the snow, she gravely on his arm, wind blowing her hair to snarls, heels slipping once on ice. "To hear the music," he explained.
Tonight's scratch choir was all male, epauletted shoulders visible under the wide necks of white robes, and many faces nearly as white with the exhaustion of soaked and muddy fields, midwatches, cables strummed by the nervous balloons sunfishing in the clouds, tents whose lights inside shone nuclear at twilight, soullike, through the cross-hatched walls, turning canvas to fine gauze, while the wind drummed there.....The children are away dreaming, but the Empire has no place for dreams and it's Adults Only in here tonight, here in this refuge with the lamps burning deep, in pre-Cambrian exhalation, savory as food cooking, heavy as soot. And 60 miles up the rockets hanging the measureless instant over the black North Sea before the fall, ever faster, to orange heat, Christmas star, in helpless plunge to Earth. Lower in the sky the flying bombs are out too, roaring like the Adversary, seeking whom they may devour. It's a long walk home tonight. Listen to this mock-angel singing, let your communion be at least in listening, even if they are not spokesmen for your exact hopes, your exact, darkest terror, listen. There must have been evensong here long before the news of Christ. Surely for as long as there have been nights bad as this one--something to raise the possibility of another night that could actually, with love and cockcrows, light the path home, banish the Adversary, destroy the boundaries between our lands, our bodies, our stories, all false, about who we are: for the one night, leaving only the clear way home and the memory of the infant you saw, almost too frail, there's too much shit in these streets, camels and other beasts stir heavily outside, each hoof a chance to wipe him out.......But on the way home tonight, you wish you'd picked him up, held him a bit. Just held him, very close to your heart, his cheek by the hollow of your shoulder, full of sleep. As if it were you who could, somehow, save him. For the moment not caring who you're supposed to be registered as. For the moment, anyway, no longer who the Caesars say you are.
O Jesu parvule
Nach dir is mir so weh...
So this pickup group, these exiles and horny kids, sullen civilians called up in their middle age.......give you this evensong, climaxing now with its rising fragment of some ancient scale, voices overlapping threee and fourfold, filling the entire hollow of the church--no counterfeit baby, no announcement of the Kingdom, not even a try at warming or lighting this terrible night, only, damn us, our scruffy obligatory little cry, our maximum reach outward--praise be to God!--for you to take back to your war-address, your war-identity, across the snow's footprints and tire tracks finally to the path you must create by yourself, alone in the dark. Whether you want it or not, whatever seas you have crossed, the way home...
1:33 PM
THE GLOBAL COFFEE HOUSE
WHERE do you go when you want to know the latest business news, follow commodity prices, keep up with political gossip, find out what others think of a new book, or stay abreast of the latest scientific and technological developments? Today, the answer is obvious: you log on to the internet. Three centuries ago, the answer was just as easy: you went to a coffee-house. There, for the price of a cup of coffee, you could read the latest pamphlets, catch up on news and gossip, attend scientific lectures, strike business deals, or chat with like-minded people about literature or politics.
This quote from an article at Economist.com, comparing the role of the Internet with the coffee houses that sprang up in Europe starting around 1650. Well worth reading.
(Thanks to Glenn, who has also drawn the same analogy)
10:19 AM
THIS SOUNDS INTERESTING
There's a new college textbook out called Inventing America (Pauline Maier, Merritt Smith, et al). Invention and Technology magazine calls it "the first general American history text to draw significantly on scholarship in the fields of science, technology, and invention."
The focus of the book, as its name suggests, is on innovation--not only technical innovation, but social and political innovation, and in the linkages among these types of change.
Co-author Maier says that she has successfully used material of this type in her own teaching. In one class, she assigned Charles Sorenson's book My Forty Years with Ford. (Sorenson was Ford's chief manufacturing executive at the River Rouge plant.) One student asked "what such an interesting book was doing in a boring old American history course." Maier replied that "what the book talked about was history," and the student "noticed that history isn't boring."
Maier also has this to say about the craft of the historian:
The moral challenge of the humanities, I was once told, is to develop the imagination to get out of ourselves and learn what it is or was be to be someone else, which includes someone else who lived in another time.
9:08 AM
Tuesday, December 23, 2003
CHRISTMAS PAST AND PRESENT
Christmas is just not what it once was. Something seems to be missing. So says the author of this little essay.
It was written in 1740.
(Many thanks to Invisible Adjunct.)
8:58 AM
Monday, December 22, 2003
MORE SYMPATHY FOR THE DEVIL
Frederick Turner, a professor at the University of Texas (Dallas), observes:
...perhaps we can take note of the very strange period through which we have just passed--a period in which it is if many among the old elites of the West seemed almost to be taking the side of the dictator (Saddam Hussein) against his people and against their liberator.
Indeed, it seems that those who are most vocal about their humanitarianism often seem to have a strange sympathy for terrorists and dictators. Those who are most strident in their calls for cultural relativism seem strangely enamoured of those whose approach to the world is totally absolutist.
Why is this phenomenon happening?
In his article, Turner offers a partial explanation in terms of two alternative foundations for law, which he calls what is good and what is right. The commonality between the American/European left on the one hand, and the radical Islamic fundamentalists on the other, he suggests, is this: although they may disagree as to the nature of "the good," they want "the good" to be something enforced by state power, rather than freely chosen by individuals.
There are many thought-provoking ideas in the article, which is well worth reading. I'm not convinced, however, that this formulation addresses the core of the (very real) phenomenon which it seeks to explain.
7:12 PM
Sunday, December 21, 2003
UNLEASH THE DOGS OF PEACE
About a year ago, I mentioned a then-new organization called Pups for Peace. Their mission is to train a large number of explosive-sniffing dogs and send them to Israel.
I just noticed that PFP has a great website, well worth a visit. There are wonderful dog pictures, and there is a wealth of interesting information on the role of dogs in Jewish history and lore.
And there are heartbreaking pictures of the victims of terrorism--a reminder of the vital nature of the mission for which these dogs are being trained.
PFP would welcome any financial contributions.
8:39 PM
Friday, December 19, 2003
BETTING ON MANUFACTURING
Jeff Gendell, a successful investment advisor and fund manager, is placing large bets on the manufacturing sector. "A lot of people think U.S. manufacturing is dead," he told a Barrons interviewer. "This is going to be the strongest recovery in the last 25 years--my entire investing career--and it is all going to be centralized in the industrial sector of the economy."
What's behind this rather contrarian outlook? It's about shipping rates. As I've previously noted, heavy demand from China has led to radical increases in ocean shipping rates, especially for bulk carriers. To ship a ton of iron ore from Brazil or Australia to China now costs more than the ore itself does. Gendell believes that this will make U.S. steel much more competitive with imported steel--he also says that steel scrap is now in relatively short supply, which will result in more demand from the large integrated steel producers. These same factors, he believes, will benefit companies which are relatively low on the steel value chain--"low-end casting and forging businesses."
Is he right? It seems likely that the shipping bottlenecks will moderate in a few years as new capacity is built. However, by this time there may also be enough time for other factors favoring domestic manufacturing to operate--such as higher wage rates in China and India, and possible changes in exchange rates--not to mention continued productivity increases in U.S. manufacturing.
There's also a larger point here. It takes a container ship about 15 days to transport goods from a Far East port to a U.S. west coast port (bulk carriers, of course, take longer for the same distance.) Compare this with the amount of time it takes to transport information over the same route--less than 100 milliseconds. The outsourcing of manufacturing will always be subject to certain limits based on the timing and cost of physical goods transportation--in certain service sectors, these limits are much less binding--because only information is being transported. It's quite possible that the "lost jobs" issues of the next 5 years will center much more around services than around manufacturing--and that many of the jobs lost will be those of highly-educated "symbolic analysts"--the very jobs that many experts, only a few years ago, were telling us were those that would be most secure over the long term.
(This post is general commentary and not investment advice. These are extremely complex topics, and you should do your own research and analysis before investing based on any of these considerations.)
(Barrons quote from 12/8 issue)
8:48 AM
Thursday, December 18, 2003
SYMPATHY FOR THE DEVIL
Following the arrest of Saddam Hussein, the following comment was made by Renato Martino, the head of the Vatican's Justice and Peace department:
"I felt pity to see this man destroyed, (the military) looking at his teeth as if he were a cow. They could have spared us these pictures."
Andrea Harris has some words of wisdom about the Cardinal's comments:
"..I can identify this ostentatious display of compassion on the part of Cardinal Martino and others: I believe it has to do with something the Christians call "pride." Remember that? "I'm better than you," these caretakers of Hussein's human dignity are saying. "I'm so full of love for humanity that I even refuse to feel anything but pity and sorrow for mass murderers! Beat that, Americans/Righties/Warmongers/Whatever!""
There is also some brilliant analysis by C S Lewis which relates closely to the Cardinal's behavior: excerpted at my earlier post here.
6:07 PM
Wednesday, December 17, 2003
ONE HUNDRED YEARS OF MANNED FLIGHT
It's 100 years ago today, December 17, 1903, that Orville and Wilbur Wright first flew. President Bush honored the occasion with a nicely done speech. He probably particularly enjoyed saying the following:
The New York Times once confidently explained why all attempts at flight were doomed from the start. To build a flying machine, declared one editorial, would require "the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians from one million to ten million years." As it turned out, the feat was performed eight weeks after the editorial was written. (Applause.) And not only did the machine perform its function, that little wood and canvas aircraft had brought together all the essentials that still give flight to every modern aircraft -- from a single-prop plane to Air Force One.
8:54 AM
BONHOEFFER AND IRAQ
Theologian and professor George Hunsinger compared his stand against the war in Iraq with Dietrich Bonhoeffer's stand against Nazi Germany, according to The Weekly Standard. Like Bonhoeffer, he declared, "I pray every day for the defeat of my country."
Well, there are a few little differences between the situations. The German army, for whose defeat Bonhoeffer prayed, was enabling the shipment of people to death camps--the U.S. Army, for whose defeat Hunsinger is praying, has stopped the shipment of people to death camps. And Bonhoeffer was hanged for his stand--Hunsinger has a prestigious (and doubtless well-paid) professorship at Princeton.
It should be noted that Bonhoeffer, unlike many members of the German resistance, was willing to use force against the Nazi regime--i.e., to have Hitler killed. (There were many individuals in the Christian and even the military resistance who, although they showed great individual courage in their stands against Naziism, were too concerned with their own moral purity to advocate such a killing. I have written about this previously: What would Dietrich Do?)
If Bonhoeffer indeed prayed for the defeat of his country, this implies that he was in effect also praying for the victory of the Allied forces--which also implies that his pacifism was not absolute. Is it not conceivable that if he were here today he might have been praying for the defeat of the power most closely resembling Nazi Germany--ie, Saddam's regime? I do not assert this as a conclusion, merely as a possibility.
In any event, it seems to me quite obscene for American professors, in their comfortable and secure positions, to compare themselves with noble and courageous figures like Bonhoeffer.
Here's also an interesting post in which a Christian, with strong pacifist leanings, wrestles with Iraq and with the example of Bonhoeffer.
8:39 AM
Tuesday, December 16, 2003
SADDAM AND EICHMANN
As options are being considered for the trial of Saddam Hussein, a writer in the Jerusalem Post thought it might be interesting to look at a historical precedent--the trial of Adolph Eichmann.
In 1960, this Nazi criminal was captured by Israeli agents (in Argentina), flown to Israel, tried, and executed. All of this is common knowledge. What is probably not common knowledge is the reaction of those who consider themselves to be experts on morality and on international affairs.
The UN Security Council voted unanimously – with US support – to condemn Israel for endangering international peace and security. The Washington Post said that the capture and planned prosecution of Eichmann were "tainted by lawlessness." Time Magazine accused Israel's leaders of "inverse racism," while The New York Times rejected the Israeli claims that Eichmann's role in the Nazi genocide justified Israel's intrusion into Argentina, on the grounds that "no immoral or illegal act justifies another."
On the religious front, the Catholic publication The Tablet said the Eichmann trial was a reminder "that there are still some influential people around who – like Shylock of old – demand their pound of flesh." And, lest you think that reactions like this came only from publications of traditionalist denominations, an article in the Unitarian Register compared "the Jew-pursuing Nazi and the Nazi-pursuing Jew."
We will doubtless see similar reactions to the trial of Saddam Hussein, very likely from many of the very same institutions.
(hat tip: LGF)
3:47 PM
Saturday, December 13, 2003
AN INTERESTING PARALLEL
The Iraqi blogger who calls himself The Mesopotamian has been thinking about one of his favorite movies. It's the Japanese film The Seven Samurai, which was westernized (in two meanings of the word) as The Magnificent Seven.
He sees some parallels with the current situation in Iraq.
He also sees a difference:
here is a difference, though; our Samurais are no dying race but vibrant civilizations in the prime of their youth and height of their vigor; and our village is no obscure place but the birthplace of civilization. So take courage, friends, victory is assured, despite all the trials and tribulations. It is the will of God.
3:22 PM
Friday, December 12, 2003
THE EDIFICE CLUE
Here's an unusual but intriguing approach to making investment decisions--specifically, deciding which companies in which not to invest. In Fortune (12/22), Donald Sull of Harvard Business School has this to say: "If I see a big, spanking-new headquarters, the stock's a sell. There's just too much shareholder cash sloshing around." He specifically cautions investors against companies possessing any of the following in their new headquarters: an architectural award for design, a waterfall in the lobby, or a heliport on the roof. When such things make their appearance, Sull believes, "Management is saying, 'We've declared victory, and now we're building a huge monument to our victory.' "
I'd register a partial caveat about the heliport on the roof--if the executives are doing a great deal of travelling, the heliport might be justifiable in practical terms, rather than as an image thing. Sull's overall point makes sense to me, though.
8:13 PM
Thursday, December 11, 2003
A TRIPLE BETRAYAL
The mainstream media has done an inexcusably poor job in covering the counterterrorism demonstrations in Iraq. A network news program that I watched last night had time to talk at length about new Viagra-type drugs...and they had time to talk about ancient snarky comments made by Richard Nixon and directed at Ronald Reagan. Not exactly time-critical stuff. But not one word about the demonstrations.
This failure in reporting represents a triple betrayal by the media people involved.
1) First and foremost, it is a betrayal of the people of Iraq. Thousands of people demonstrated, often at great personal risk...and the media, by failing to cover this event properly, has substantially undercut the impact of their efforts.
2) Second, it is a betrayal of their readers/viewers, who are entitled to the full picture of what is going on--not just the negatives.
3) Third, it is in the long term a betrayal of their shareholders (and almost all of these media enterprises are public companies.) As it becomes more and more obvious that news from these organizations does not represent a serious attempt to be objective, their market share will suffer accordingly. Indeed, it appears that some of this has already happened to the network news programs.
Absolutely disgraceful.
2:11 PM
Wednesday, December 10, 2003
MISVALUING MANUFACTURING
In the blogosphere and in the media, there have recently been many comments running basically as follows: "We're better off without all those manufacturing jobs, anyhow...let the boring assembly line jobs be done somewhere else, and let our people concentrate on high-value knowledge work."
I believe that comments like these reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of manufacturing.
It's true that in a typical manufacturing plant there are many jobs which are repetitive in nature and require fairly low skill levels. But there are also many other kinds of jobs--jobs requiring high levels of skill and education. When a manufacturing plant leaves, these jobs usually leave as well.
What are these jobs? Here's a sampling. First, there are the skilled crafts--tool-and-die makers, for instance. These are people who must have a good knowledge of materials and production processes, as well as the ability to do precision work. Then, on the white-collar side, there are the production control people, responsible for managing the flow of work through the plant on an ongoing basis. Often, there will be Operations Research specialists, typically with masters degrees or Ph.Ds, assisting in this process. There are systems designers and computer programmers, who develop and/or customize the production control software. There are industrial engineers who set up and optimize processes, and cost-accounting specialists who measure results. Finally, there are several levels of management, including the owner (in a small plant), the plant General Manager (in a larger company), and the Vice President of Manufacturing (in a multiplant organization).
And outside the company itself are the jobs of those who provide it with products and services. There are, for example, those who sell and service the production machinery (industrial robots, machine tools, etc)
Among these jobs, there is plenty of "knowledge work." It would be silly to argue that a computer programmer in a bank is a "knowledge worker" and a programmer in manufacturing is not. And, as manufacturing becomes more automated, the ratio of the knowledge-work jobs to the relatively unskilled "direct labor" jobs is increasing.
In an otherwise-good Business Week article on India (12/8), the following statement is made: "If India can turn into a fast-growth economy, it will be the first developing nation that used its brainpower, not natural resources or the raw muscle of factory labor, as a catalyst."
I admire what India is accomplishing. But this BW statement is ridiculous. The development of Japan, for example, was not based soley on "the raw muscle of factory labor." There was a very high intellectual content in the development of the Toyota Production System and the many other manufacturing innovations created by Japanese companies. Indeed, Japanese assembly-line workers--not just specialists--have made many contributions to the development and success of these techniques. If BW would look through their own archives from a few years ago, I bet they could even find some articles on these things.
Manufacturing is a smaller proportion of the U.S. economy than it used to be, but it remains a vast and critically-important industry. Those who write about it should make an effort to understand it more deeply.
3:08 PM
COUNTERTERRORISM DEMONSTRATIONS
The demonstrations in Baghdad went off as planned today; over ten thousand participants were estimated to be present. Here's an on-the-scene report.
UPDATE: Shanti has some good comments:
It is also really interesting to see the difference between the so-called anti-war protesters and the Iraqis marching against terrorism in Zeyad’s photos (he has three sets of pictures up on his site). Where as there is nothing but blood, hate and a freaky carnival atmosphere in the “peace” protests, the Iraqis as you can see are well-dressed and almost every face shines with hope and happiness. The people look repectable and they seem to be proud in whatever they are doing.
Again, I am reminded of the comments I made in this post about the thought processes of many of those "anti-war" protesters.
12:58 PM
Tuesday, December 09, 2003
ON A POSITIVE NOTE
Via Business Pundit comes this inspirational story about a small but growing American manufacturing company.
"Innovation" doesn't always mean "computers and software."
7:40 PM
A VOICE FROM SPAIN
Pilar Rahola, a Catalan from Barcelona, is a leftist, a feminist, and a former member of the Spanish Parliament. She has given a thoughtful interview on the rise of Judeophobia is Europe, particularly among the left. Excerpt:
What I want is to launch an appeal to the collective European way of thinking, and especially to the intellectuals and journalists, because, from my point of view, they are in the process of creating a collective reality that is Judeophobic. Today one must prove oneself to be on the left ; it is necessary to be anti-Semitic to have credibility. Things have reached the point where, for instance, Sharon is always guilty of being guilty, while Arafat is seen as an honest figure, innocent, a tireless old resistance fighter, a heroic figure, a kind of Gandhi—in brief, a person gussied up in romantic finery, when in reality he is head of an oligarchy that has so much blood on its hands.
Definitely read the whole thing.
4:07 PM
IRAQIS AT RISK
Yesterday, I wrote about the risks faced by Iraqis who speak out against terrorism, or who support American forces. Here is a chilling confirmation of just how real those risks are.
Chief Wiggles, stationed in Iraq, was recently told about 4 teenage girls who are in hiding. Their lives are being threatened because they have tried to help the Coalition in locating criminals/terrorists in their neighborhood. (Post at Dean's World.)
The Chief is looking for an organization to sponsor these young women, so that they can come to America before they it is too late.
If the U.S. withdraws from Iraq before stability is established, the possible fate of these girls will be multiplied manyfold. If you favor a quick U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, you should ask yourself your conscience can justify the certain deaths of thousands of people like this. Because, however you dress it up, this is the consequence of what you are advocating. Maybe you have reasons that make you believe it would be worth it...but don't kid yourself that it wouldn't happen.
4:01 PM
Monday, December 08, 2003
ELECTRONIC GENOCIDE
Three former media executives were convicted of genocide for their role in encouraging the murder of 800,000 people in Rwanda. Two of them were sentenced to life in prison, and the other to 35 years. Through radio broadcasts and magazine articles, they openly called for murder of Tutsis and moderate Hutus.
But their guilt is shared by others, who should also be called to account.
General Romeo Dallaire, the UN peacekeeping force commander, pleaded for US assistance in neutralizing the broadcasts calling for genocide. This could have been done by jamming, or more directly by destroying the transmitters.
The Clinton administration turned the request down, based on a combination of reasons--mainly cost and "international legal conventions." (I'm sure those hacked to death with machetes were comforted to learn that the international legal conventions were being observed). There were also excuses about the difficulty of jamming in "mountainous terrain," which don't sound very convincing to me...in any event, if this was indeed an issue, it could have been overcome by simply destroying the transmitters (and there is no target easier to locate than an active radio transmitter.)
Most likely, business as usual was more important than saving lives.
The guilt of the US officials in this case is of a different level from that of those just convicted, and obviously, prison sentences are not called for. But Americans and others should draw the approrpriate conclusions those who stood by and, in the face of genocide, refused to take simple and common-sense measures to help prevent it.
(You can read more about General Dallaire and his efforts to save Rwanda here.)
4:22 PM
INFORMATION AND TRANSPORTATION
Getloaded.com sounds like it might be a web site for heavy drinkers. It's not. It's kind of a computer dating service for trucks and freight.
A big issue in the trucking industry is the problem of "deadheading." You might have a cargo that needs to go from Atlanta to Denver in a particular timeframe: if you can't locate freight going the opposite direction during an appropriate time window, you may need to return empty. This is inefficient in terms of equipment utilization, driver time, and fuel. Various partial solutions to this problem have been developed over time; freight brokers, for example, play an important role in matching up the cargo and the trucks. Computer-based matching solutions have been developed in the (pre-Internet) past, but have had a hard time achieving enough critical mass to be really effective.
If Getloaded.com can succeed in a big way, it can be a real contribution to transportation efficiency..a great example of how bits can substitute for steel, diesel fuel, and man-hours.
3:38 PM
COURAGE, REAL AND PHONY
Demonstrations against terrorism, led by children carrying flowers, have been held in Iraq. Aziz Al-Yassiri secretary of the Iraqi Democratic Trend described the daily attacks in Iraq as acts of terrorism and said that any attempt to legitimize or justify these acts as 'resistance' are ridiculous. "We organized this demonstration because the terrorists now kill a lot of people," he said. "They kill the children, kill women, kill the people, kill the police. They want to stop our plan for a democratic system."
The number of participants in these demonstrations was relatively small, evidently somewhere under 1000 (larger demonstrations are planned for the near future), and this has probably led many to underrate their significance. But consider the realities faced by Iraqis. If you are an Iraqi, you know that participating in such a demonstration could put you--and your family--at risk of being murdered by Baathist elements. You know, moreover, that if the U.S. abandons Iraq, you will be exposed to the full fury of a renascent Saddamite regime. And if you follow Western media, you know that such abandonment is desired by powerful elements in U.S. politics, media, and academia.
Thus, it requires tremendous courage for Iraqis to participate in these demonstrations. The fact that hundreds of them were willing to do so says a lot about their personal committment to the future of their country.
While these Iraqis are showing true courage, there are many "antiwar" activists in the U.S. and Europe who feel they are showing courage by demonstrating against the war. It's nonsense, of course. Peaceful demonstrators against the war are at no risk of being arrested/tortured/executed. Most of them are not even taking any risks of social disapproval. Among Hollywood luminaries, few are likely to condemn you for demonstrating against the war. Ditto among the denizens of the faculty lounge. So let's hear less self-congratulation about "courage" by those who haven't shown any, and more appreciation for those who are truly putting themselves at risk.
Larger demonstrations are planned for December 10. Here's a web site with banners you can used to show your support for these brave Iraqis, as well as a petition to sign.
2:49 PM
Sunday, December 07, 2003
A NEW BLOG
Some people venture into space. Others explore the oceans, thousands of feet below the surface. Still others travel through jungles inhabited by wild beasts.
And here's someone who is attending grad school in English--even though he is a conservative.
You can read about his adventures here.
8:57 PM
I'M BACK
Sorry for the infrequent blogging...I've been out of town without much access to Internet.
6:59 PM
Monday, December 01, 2003
MORE TRANSPORTATION BOTTLENECKS
I posted previously on the current shortages in ocean shipping capacity, particularly for bulk cargoes, and the consequent increases in transporation charges. Now a similar phenomenon is occurring in the rail sector. The Wall Street Journal (12/1) reports that growing grain exports from North America (largely a function of poor harvests in Europe and elsewhere), combined with traffic increases resulting from the overall economic recovery, are creating railroad bottlenecks and equipment shortages. One grain elevator has been waiting for a train that was originally supposed to arrive November 1. At another, 400,000 bushels of corn and soybeans have been dumped on the ground since the elevator is full. Affected railroads are increasing capital expenditures for cars and locomotives, and are also ramping up hiring, but these actions will likely take too long to have much impact on the immediate situation.
Rail freight rates are increasing due to basic supply-and-demand factors, and some buyers and sellers of grain have been forced to use truck transportation, a more-expensive solution, as an interim measure.
11:33 AM
Thursday, November 27, 2003
HAVE A TASTY THANKSGIVING
Edna St. Vincent Millay defends American cooking. (Courtesy of Sheila O'Malley, whose birthday is today.)
We read some of Millay's poems in high school, but nobody told us what a wild woman she was. I suspect that the poems would have been better appreciated had this been known....
9:50 AM
THANKSGIVING AND TEMPORAL BIGOTRY
Stuart Buck encountered a teacher who said "Kids learn so much these days. Did you know that today a schoolchild learns more between the freshman and senior years of high school than our grandparents learned in their entire lives?" ("She said this as if she had read it in some authoritative source", Stuart comments.)
She probably had read it in some supposedly-authoritative source, but it's an idiotic statement nevertheless. What, precisely, is this wonderful knowledge that high-school seniors have today and which the 40-year-olds of 1840 or 1900 were lacking?
The example of knowledge that people usually throw out is "computers." But the truth is, to be a casual user of computers (I'm not talking about programming and systems design), you don't need much knowledge. You need "keyboarding skills"--once called "typing." And you need to know some simple conventions as to how the operating system expects you to interact with it. That's about it. Not much informational or conceptual depth there.
Consider the knowledge possessed by by the Captain of a sailing merchant ship, circa 1840. He had to understand celestial navigation: this meant he had to understand trigonometry and logarithms. He had to possess the knowledge--mostly "tacit knowledge," rather than book-learning--of how to handle his ship in various winds and weathers. He might well be responsible for making deals concerning cargo in various ports, and hence had to have a reasonable understanding of business and of trade conditions. He had to have some knowledge of maritime law.
Outside of the strictly professional sphere, his knowedge probably depended on his family background. If he came from a family that was reasonably well-off, he probably knew several of Shakespeare's plays. He probably had a smattering of Latin and even Greek. Of how many high-school (or college) seniors can these statements be made today?
(In his post, Stuart compares knowledge levels using his grandfather--a farmer--as an example.)
Today's "progressives," particularly those in the educational field, seem to have a deep desire to put down previous generations, and to assume we have nothing to learn from them. It's a form of temporal bigotry, and is the direct opposite of the spirit of appreciation upon which we should be focusing particularly at Thanksgiving.
As C S Lewis said: If you want to destroy an infantry unit, you cut it off from its neighboring units. If you want to destroy a generation, you cut it off from previous generations. (Approximate quote.)
How better to conduct such destruction than to tell people that previous generations were ignorant and that we have nothing to learn from them?
8:57 AM
Wednesday, November 26, 2003
AN ESSAY ON LIBERALISM
Dean Esmay defends the spirit of liberalism, and the world "liberal" itself:
Look in any decent dictionary, and you will find the word "liberal," broadly defined, to mean that one is not limited to tradition, orthodoxy, or authoritarian attitudes, broad-minded, tolerant, generous, favoring of reform, and in favor of progress.
and
The important characteristic of the liberal is not his policy positions. It's how he arrived at those positions. It's about his open-mindedness. His willingness to do more than just argue for the sake of scoring points, winning for the sake of winning, or merely for the fun of having a good row. The liberal wants to find the truth, no matter where it leads him. If he encounters disagreement, the liberal wants to understand the other's position, with an open mind toward some exciting possibilities..
but
Many of our modern day so-called "liberals" are not liberals at all. They are actually quite conservative, quite reactionary in their views, working from the presumption that their worldview is axiomatically correct and that those who challenge it are, by nature, stupid, vile, evil, "party liners," etc.
A thoughtful piece, well worth reading.
8:07 AM
Tuesday, November 25, 2003
ART, DISCOMFORT, AND DEHUMANIZATION
Brian Micklethwait writes:
As for the endlessly repeated claim that art is supposed to make you feel uncomfortable, I don't buy that. And I don't believe the people who say that they do buy it are being honest. I think that a picture which they have no problem with, but which they believe makes other people whom they disapprove of uncomfortable, makes them very comfortable indeed, and that that is the kind of discomfort (i.e. not discomfort at all, for them) which they like, and are referring to with all this discomfort propaganda.
Very astute point about the difference between making other people uncomfortable and making oneself uncomfortable. Those who make a religion of the first rarely seem to practice the second.
As to the broader question: is art supposed to make you feel uncomfortable?...I would say that great art may make you feel uncomfortable, but if the artist creates a work with the objective of making people uncomfortable, then he is unlikely to produce great (or even good) art.
Brian's post reminded me of an important essay "Against the Dehumanization of Art," by the novelist Mark Helprin (originally presented as a lecture in 1994.) Sample:
Art that imitates the rigor of science forgoes an infinite wealth of variables that pure nature, in its constancy and nobility, does not present, for if man is more limited in his capacities he is more interesting in his unpredictability. Art that accepts human limitations is empowered and enriched by the very discipline that the modernists ignore.
For example, the Hofburg and the Astrodome each are of immense volume, but the Hofburg is apportioned to human scale. Whereas the Astrodome makes its single point in a minute, you can wander for years in the Hofburg. This is because we are of a certain size. Certain proportions are right for us, while others are not. Modernism has forgotten this, forgotten that we cannot survive at certain temperatures, that we disintegrate at certain speeds, that we cannot fit in some spaces or fill others, that our understanding is tethered to our mortality, that part of what we call art is the tempering of ideas and notions by the facts of our existence and the existence of our limitations.
and
Modernism is by necessity obsessed with form, much like a craftsman obsessed with his tools and materials. In my climbing days we used to call people like that “equipment weenies.” These days you can see it in fly-fishing, where not a few people go out once a year with $5,000-worth of equipment to catch (maybe) $5-worth of fish. What should have been the story of the man, the stream, and the fish becomes instead a romance between the man and his tools. In this century the same thing happened in art.
and finally
When I was in the army, many years ago, I was an infantryman, and in the course of what I saw, and did, and came to understand, I was broken. Sometime after I had returned to the United States and my life had resumed, I rounded a corner in the Metropolitan Museum in New York and saw a painting I had known all my life but which I had not until that moment been able to understand. This was Winslow Homer’s masterfully restrained portrait of a veteran returning to his fields. The generation touched by fire in the Civil War understood the great import of this painting, they knew why the veteran had his back turned to the painter, why he was alone, why he worked in utter quiet, why the light was so clear, the scene so tranquil. After years of war and destruction, they understood, and after having passed this painting for the first time as a man, so did I.
As if there had never been a Gettysburg, an Antietam, or a Chancellorsville, the light struck the soil and the wheat grew. The world was the same. The essential rules had not changed. Devastation had not triumphed. The veteran could return to his fields, and the answer to his tentativeness was that, as if by a miracle, they were now even richer than he had remembered them.
Read the whole thing.
5:30 PM
Monday, November 24, 2003
CODE OF SILENCE
Everybody knows what happens to squealers. So, not surprisingly, the witnesses are reluctant to come forward. Those that do usually insist on remaining anonymous: no names, no pictures, disguised voices.
No, it's not an investigation into the mob. It's the New York City public schools.
As is generally known, life in the NYC schools is micromanaged by an elaborate set of contractual work rules. Eva Moskowitz, an NYC Councilwoman, has been holding hearings into this situation. In talking with teachers and principals, she has found that many will criticize the rules privately, but when asked to testify say things like: "I'm not that brave," "Are you kidding?" and "I might be blacklisted." (From today's Wall Street Journal)
There seems to be little chance of reforming this school system from within when this climate of intimidation exists--and when few within the system are willing to take the risks of speaking out.
9:04 PM
Saturday, November 22, 2003
A CIVIL DIALOG
An Egyptian e-mails Meryl Yourish and politely challenges her support for Israel, asking several questions. She responds, courteously and forcefully. (here)
We need more of this kind of discussion, in which the effort is to convince rather than to denounce.
8:30 AM
Friday, November 21, 2003
GIVE THIS MAN A MEDAL
Literally. I'm not speaking metaphorically here.
When people are injured and lose a lot of blood, their body temperature drops. This reduced temperature, in turn, reduces the effectiveness of blood clotting. It's a vicious circle, and can result in the patient's death. Blankets and warming lamps are used to raise the patient's temperature, and a special warming jacket, complete with small ducts for warm air distribution, is available. But the 28th Combat Support Hospital, in Iraq, had been waiting four months for these jackets to arrive. (Information from this article).
Enter Staff Sergeant Adam R. Irby. He put together the "Chief Cuddler," a device incorporating a cardboard box, plastic pipe, tape, and a hair dryer. He was assisted by Maj. Michael W. Greenly, the head nurse of the surgical facility. The Cuddler creates a micro-environment of about 105 degrees and will bring a patient from about 90 to 98.6 degrees in about three hours.
"It’s awesome and it works,” said Dr. (Capt.) Tracey Lyon. “It definitely has saved some lives.”
Tremendous credit is due to Sgt Irby for doing this on his own initiative, rather than just waiting for the "official solution" to arrive. “This guy is the epitome of any noncommissioned officer,” Greenly said. “His selfless service shows in his soldiers. It’s very obvious he is a soldier’s soldier.”
And the fact that Maj Greenly was happy to give Sgt Irby credit for this work..rather than grabbing the credit as many "leaders" would have attempted to do--says very good things about him, also.
We shouldn't lose sight, though, of the bad news--the fact that after four months, the hospital staff was still waiting for the warming jackets to arrive. Given America's financial strength and logistical capabilities, there just isn't any excuse for this kind of thing. We should be leveraging all of our capabilities to insure that the war on terrorism--in all of its aspects--has the material support which it needs. (Indeed, the material aspects should be the simplest aspects of this war.) But we've seen this kind of problem before; for example, in the delays in procuring baggage-scanning x-ray equipment (and even the training of baggage-sniffing dogs.)
President Bush should create the position of Director of Industrial Mobilization, with broad responsibility for identifying and eliminating bottlenecks. The individual selected to fill this position should be an experienced and widely-respected executive.
The political, psychological, and military aspects of the war on terrorism are very difficult. The material and logicstical challenges are also difficult, but we definitely know how to solve them. Let's get on with doing so.
(hat tip: Donald Sensing)
2:50 PM
CHECK IT OUT
Little Miss Attila has extraordinarily fine taste in weblog design.
9:01 AM
Thursday, November 20, 2003
UNIVERSALISM AND PARTICULARISM
In a recent post on the social influence of telegraphy, I suggested that telecommunications technology, in general, tends to be an influence toward universalist ideas and away from particularist ones.
Here's a very interesting post by Judith Weiss on the tensions between universalism and particularism, with particular references to Judaism.
2:02 PM
Wednesday, November 19, 2003
MASTER AND COMMANDER
Saw the movie the other day...reasonably good, in my opinion, though certainly not a great film. Worth seeing if you are interested in things nautical or historical.
The film did remind me of this quote:
For one thing this century will in after ages be considered to have done in a superb manner and one thing I think only. . . it will always be said of us, with unabated reverence, "They built ships of the line" . . . the ship of the line is [man’s] first work. Into that he has put as much of his human patience, common sense, forethought, experimental philosophy, self control, habits of order and obedience, thoroughly wrought handwork, defiance of brute elements, careless courage, careful patriotism, and calm expectation of the judgement of God, as can well be put into a space of 300 feet long by 80 broad. And I am thankful to have lived in an age when I could see this thing so done.
---John Ruskin, 1851
(Ships of the line were large sailing warships, considerably larger than the frigate which is the centerpiece of Master and Commander. Ruskin was a leading intellectual of his time: a prolific writer, artist, and art critic; a socialist and a founder of the movement to revive traditional crafts.)
In this quote, of course, Ruskin emphasizes the positive and does not mention some of the less-admirable social attributes that were also symbolized by a ship of the line. Still, it's a fine piece of writing.
5:15 PM
Tuesday, November 18, 2003
MORE ABOUT MORSE
Like most people, my knowledge of Samuel Morse the man was limited to the fact that he was once a starving artist, and that he selected the words "What hath God wrought?" for the first telegraph message. A recent biography (see post below) shows that he was the possessor of some rather un-admirable political reviews. He was anti-immigrant and strongly anti-Catholic. He was a strong supporter of slavery, and supported the Confederate cause even after the beginning of the Civil War.
There's a fine historical irony here--because the telegraph contributed mightily to the defeat of the Confederate cause. Yes, the Confederates used telegraphy too--but the Union was able to combine instant telegraphic communications with their greatly-superior railroad capacity in order to conduct rapid troop movements on a vast scale.
And above the level of the battlefield, the telegraph contributed in other ways to the destruction of the social order that Morse preferred. Arguably, the telegraph contributed mightily to the developing perception (in pre-civil-war days) that the United States was truly one country, and that a resident of Maine had a valid reason to be concerned about affairs in Alabama.
And, at an even higher level, the telegraph and its technological descendents have contributed--and continue to contribute--to the advancement of a universalist world view, as opposed to the particularist worldview (race-geography-religion) which was evidently favored by Morse. Even today, the network known as the Internet--a lineal descendent of telegraphy--continues to drive this process.
2:18 PM
DOTS AND DASHES
There's a new biography out about Samuel Morse, the telegraphy pioneer (Lightning Man, by Kenneth Silverman). I haven't read the book yet, but from the reviews (there's one in the Sunday NYT), it sounds interesting. I was particularly struck by this quote, from an unnamed 19th-century journalist writing about the telegraph:
"This extraordinary discovery leaves...no elsewhere...it is all here."
Sounds very similar to many journalistic comments made just a few years ago, as the Internet began to come into common use.
8:05 AM
Monday, November 17, 2003
SCHOOLING, INDIAN AND AMERICAN-STYLE
Private schools are proliferating in India (NYT, registration required). Even impoverished parents are spending scarce funds in a desperate effort to keep their kids out of the government schools. And the responses of the government school administrators sound very similar to many of their counterparts in the U.S. public school system. One guy "attributed the rush to private schools to a "mad race" reflecting parents' desire for status. "Our schools might not be sophisticated, but they are very rooted with village culture," he said."
Vouchers, anyone?
4:43 PM
HATING JEWS AND AMERICANS
Natan Sharansky has a long and important article on anti-Semitism, anti-Americanism, and the relationship between the two.
7:21 AM
Saturday, November 15, 2003
EDUCATING FOR IGNORANCE
A correspondent at John Ray's site tells of returning to the university after working in industry. Here is one of the "facts" he learned:
I was told it was the invention of the steam engine that made it possible for England to ship its convicts to Australia and for England and the other colonial powers to establish empires.
This is, of course, nonsense. The steam engine was originally used for pumping water out of mines and (after improvement by James Watt) for driving mill machinery. Its initial applications aboard ship were limited by the fiendish appetite for coal possessed by early engines, and it was not until efficiencies were greatly improved that it became useful for long voyages.
The great age of colonial expansion had as its vehicle the sailing ship. Likewise, sailing vessels were used for the transportation of prisoners from England to Australia. This may not fit the neat conceptual model that someone was evidently trying to propound, but facts are inconvenient things.
I think we learned the rudiments of this history in the 6th grade. Now, you can't count on college professors to get it right.
UPDATE: Here's a great picture of the East Indiaman Edwin Fox, built in 1853. These ships were created specifically to support Britain's trade with its then-colony, India. This particular vessel also ran convicts to Australia in 1858.
Not a smokestack in sight.
ALSO...speaking of the Australian prison ships...there's an Irish ballad, Fields of Athenry, which tells the story of an Irishman being transported to Australia because he stole corn to feed his starving family. The Dropkick Murphys have a hauntingly beautiful version of this song on their album Blackout. Definitely worth buying the CD for.
11:32 AM
Friday, November 14, 2003
SURVIVING ACADEMIC OPPRESSION
In my last post, I linked to a truly scary letter posted at Erin O'Connor's site. Now comes another letter at Erin's site, this one from a prof telling about his strategy for career survival in today's academic climate. To minimize the danger of false accusations, he records everything he says in every class. (The recordings are also available for students who've missed a class, or for the prof to review and critique his own performance--but it sounds pretty clear that a main reason for their existence is to provide evidence if that should ever be needed.)
This is all so very sad. It's the intellectual equivalent of living in a neighborhood with so much crime that one must wear a bulletproof vest at all times. When this is the atmosphere at our colleges, we are light-years away from any atmosphere of open intellectual inquiry and exchange.
9:41 PM
Thursday, November 13, 2003
MORE ACADEMIC OPPRESSION
From a correspondent at Erin O'Connor's site comes this tale, straight out of Kafka. Truly horrifying.
2:49 PM
Tuesday, November 11, 2003
VETERANS' DAY, 2003
There's a good roundup of Veterans' Day posts at Winds of Change; also some good links at Sheila O'Malley.
And I'm afraid my Veterans' Day post from last year is still relevant.
9:06 AM
Monday, November 10, 2003
FACTORY WITHOUT WALLS
I am the very model of a modern manufacturer
I know the ways of optimizing all production factor-rrs
I build and buy components out in countries all around the world
And source the raw materials wherever deals are most preferred
I change the product mixes in a manner quick and tactical
My factory is global, why it's practically galactical
(with apologies to Gilbert & Sullivan)
The Wall Street Journal recently carried an interesting article on Maytag's manufacturing strategy for dishwashers. The motors come from China; the wiring harnesses come from Mexico; and the final assembly is done in the U.S. (at Jackson, Tenn). Why?
The motors are standardized and stable in design; hence, it there are relatively few problems associated with distance from the supply point. The wiring harnesses tend to differ from model to model, so it is important to make them fairly close to the point of assembly--so that model mix changes can be accommodated. And by doing final assembly in the U.S., Maytag can avoid shipping large heavy boxes across the oceans.
Interestingly, the Chinese appliance manufacturer Haier has opened a plant in the U.S. (in South Carolina). It's not clear how much this is motivated by manufacturing process issues vs by marketing (improved brand recognition in the U.S.), but here's a fascinating article about the plant in People's Daily. Along with justified pride, there's a fair amount of chest-thumping..as in:
on the afternoon of the National Day [4th of July] last year, an American workshop chief took the initiative to go to the factory to examine equipment and raw materials, making preparations for next day's production. "This simply could not occur in other American enterprises".
True enough that many American top managers are too removed from the production process...but it's ridiculous to say that this level of committment and attention to detail doesn't occur elsewhere in American industry.
The other interesting thing about Haier's strategy is that they work closely with large American retailers and have shown a willingness to customize their product with features requested by an individual retailer..as opposed to "this is the product, take it or leave it." This flexible strategy, of course, has significant implications for the way in which manufacturing is conducted.
9:36 AM
Sunday, November 09, 2003
INTERESTING HISTORY
A mighty empire launches an unprecedented military campaign. It will patrol the globe to end a heinous and uncivilised form of behaviour. Financing this pre-emptive project demands great sacrifices. Old allies refuse to participate. The empire's lonely unilateral exercise drags on for decades, costing thousands of lives. Observers from Cuba to Moscow assume that this folly will bring down the empire.
This is from the always-interesting Amity Shlaes, writing in the Financial Times. She is talking about the British campaign to suppress the slave trade, which continued from 1807 through 1867--sixty years. The burden of this campaign was carried by the Royal Navy; some 5,000 British seamen lost their lives. It was nasty work: small-ship actions against men who knew that they faced the hangman if caught (by law, slave-trading was classed as piracy). Cannon, musket, and cutlass all played a part. And it was expensive--according to Shlaes, the cost of the campaign amounted to about 2 percent of national income each year.
Shlaes argues persuasively that there is a close analogy between this campaign and today's war on terrorism...in moral purpose, in diplomatic aspects, and in the nature of the combat involved. If you are a FT subscriber or have access to a good library, the article is well worth reading (FT, November 3 issue).
4:22 PM
KRISTALLNACHT
Today is the 65th anniversary of Kristallnacht (which means "night of broken glass"). In addition to the widespread destruction of Jewish-owned stores, and the violent assaults on individual Jews, many synagogues were damaged and destroyed.
Here is a web side which features virtual reconstructions of German synagogues.
(Hat tip: Jeff Jarvis)
3:51 PM
Monday, November 03, 2003
WORTH NOTING
In September, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia in oil production--8.5 million barrels a day for Russia vs 8.45 million bpd for Saudi Arabia. (from Barrons)
Russia's exports are much lower than those of Saudi, however, and significant additional pipeline construction will be necessary in order to get a major step-up in exports.
Nevertheless, a significant milestone.
5:39 PM
Saturday, November 01, 2003
RISING ANTI-SEMITISM
In an important and chilling article, Foreign Policy writer Mark Strauss discusses how the increasing anti-Semitism of the Left is merging with the old-line anti-Semitism of the extreme right. You should read it, if you haven't already.
Strauss believes that much of this anti-Semitism is due to insecurities created by globalization. Maybe, but I'm not convinced. Who are the people wearing "t-shirts with the Star of David twisted into the Nazi swastika?" For the most part, I don't think that they are laid-off factory workers.
I think maybe the upsurge in anti-Semitism has to do, in part, with a different factor. Over the last couple of decades, we have produced millions of half-educated (why cover it up: uneducated) college graduates--some of them with advanced degrees of various kinds. These are people who have been told that "educationr is your ticket to a good career," but they have learned no skills that would be valued by an employer. They have the impression that their degree makes them somehow wiser--and even, better human beings--than less-educated people, and that they have more of a right to determine national policy--but they know little or nothing about history, geography, economics, philosophy. Their education, which in many cases represents (in their own minds) their largest accomplishment in life, is not valued by others as they expected it to be.
Take people who have (a) a feeling of entitlement, (b) a feeling of superiority, (c) a feeling of resentment, all combined with (d) an invincible ignorance, and you have a volatile political class. Resentment and anti-Semitism have always been close cousins.
Call them the "educated uneducated." I'm not saying that the proliferation of such people is the sole explanation for the rise in anti-Semitism, but surely it is a factor.
7:37 PM
Wednesday, October 29, 2003
SCROOGE COMES EARLY
Would anyone sneer at a project for giving toys to children? Especially needy and often-traumatized children?
Well, yes, actually. At least, it sounds to me like sneering.
A Newsweek writer refers to the founder of Operation Give as "the boosterish Chief Wiggles." Boosterish? I think the last time I read the word "booster" in print was in the Sinclair Lewis novel Babbitt, in which it wasn't exactly used as a positive term. You can read the Newsweek article here to get the full flavor.
As Glenn says: "Calling Chief Wiggles "boosterish" indicates, to me at least, that Nordland can't possibly have been reading his blog, which makes clear that the Chief is working hard to make a difference, and often suffering in the process. No doubt he would be more appealing to journalists if he were exuding existential despair, and smoking a Gaulois, but I'm kind of glad that he's the way he is, and kind of unhappy that Newsweek has sent a reporter who can't tell the difference between boosterism and a sense of responsibility."
Anyhow, if sneering is the name of the game...there's a rather blatant typo in the article. It's "pseudonym," not "psuedonym." Whatever happened to editors (not to mention spell-checkers)?
Now you have an additional reason to contribute to Operation Give. Not only can you make an Iraqi child happy, you can make a cynical American journalist even more miserable.
3:07 PM
Tuesday, October 28, 2003
DUMB COMPANY TRICKS
Pointless PR
Many corporate press releases read as if they were written by the pointy-haired guy in Dilbert. I was just reading one that goes, more or less, as follows (with names changed to protect the guilty):
Amalgamated Entities today announced its enhanced, best-of-breed Gerbilator product. The Gerbilator 5000 represents an industry-leading solution, using state-of-the art technology...
So what is a Gerbilator 5000? A piece of software? A consumer electronics device? An industrial robotics system? A diesel locomotive? The catch-phrases could apply equally well to any of them.
This isn't good writing, and it isn't good selling. Your potential customers aren't going to be impressed with chest-thumping: they want to know what the product does and why they should want it.
Part of the problem here is that, too often, press releases are drafted by outside agencies or internal marketing communications people who have minimal familiarity with the business, and thus fall back on generic terms because that's all they can do. The fault lies equally with them and with the line management of the business--with the line management, because they need to take a more active role in the creation and review of press releases, and with the PR people, because they need to insist on this and to broaden their knowledge of the business (and also maintain some minimal level of writing standards.)
I'm a strong advocate of the PR function: properly done, it can be more effective than advertising--and usually a lot cheaper. But "properly done" occurs in far too few cases.
9:23 AM
Monday, October 27, 2003
NO STEAK FOR YOU, CONTINUED
Apparently there's an proposal that the government require restaurants to list--on their menus--the calorie content of various dishes. Some "expert" was just saying that people can't control themselves, so the only solution is a law.
Of course, if people can't control themselves, merely listing the calories won't be enough. Stronger measures will be necessary.
Maybe this wasn't just a parody, after all.
4:32 PM
SOUND FAMILIAR?
Andrew Sullivan quotes George Orwell:
The average intellectual of the Left believed, for instance, that the war was lost in 1940, that the Germans were bound to overrun Egypt in 1942, that the Japanese would never be driven out of the lands they had conquered, and that the Anglo-American bombing offensive was making no impression on Germany. He could believe these things because his hatred for the British ruling class forbade him to admit that British plans could succeed. There is no limit to the follies that can be swallowed if one is under the influence of feelings of this kind. I have heard it confidently stated, for instance, that the American troops had been brought to Europe not to fight the Germans but to crush an English revolution.
Maybe some of today's left-wing web sites were already in existence way back then, using teleprinters or carrier pigeons for data transmission...
2:44 PM
INDUSTRIAL INDIA?
When people think about India, in the context of the global economy, they tend to think mainly about software and call centers...the country that tends to be most heavily associated with manufacturing is China. But some interesting things are also happening on the industrial side of India's economy.
Consider Bharat Forge, which was included in Forbes magazine's "Best under a billion" list (200 successful companies outside the U.S.) With revenues of about $120MM, BF produces high-quality forgings, mainly for the global automobile industry--customers include Daimler Chrysler, Caterpillar-Perkins, Renault, Mercedes Benz, New Holland, and Volvo; also Ford Motor Company, which recently selected BF as a supplier of crankshaft forgings. BF appears to be a technically-advanced operation: for example, it recently began using 3-D hot forming metal-flow software, which allows advance simulation and optimization of the manufacturing process. The company is also installing information systems which support tighter customer-supplier collaboration throughout the design process. A major emphasis is on reducing the leadtime to get a new component into production.
At the moment, of course, India isn't comparable to China as a manufacturing power. But they have a number of advantages, and as a potential global manufacturing power I'd by no means rule them out.
2:02 PM
CARNIVAL TIME
Carnival of the Capitalists is up at The Noble Pundit. It's a collection of posts on business-related topics.
6:08 AM
Sunday, October 26, 2003
CORRECTION
In case anyone noticed a little typo in the post "Today's Protest," I have this to say:
"Michelle" -- mis-spelled
Shoulda known that word ain't got two "l"s
It's "Michele"
(With apologies to the Beatles)
11:48 AM
FREE THOUGHT ON CAMPUS
Natan Sharansky, a former Israeli cabinet minister, recently visited several U.S. campuses. At Rutgers, he says, "I almost forgot I was on a college campus. The atmosphere was far from the cool, button-down academic reserve typical of such institutions. It was more reminiscent of a battlefield...My arrival was greeted by a noisy demonstration of Palestinian and Jewish students holding signs reading "Racist Israel" and "War Criminals," together with black-coated Neturei Karta members calling for the destruction of the blasphemous Zionist entity. Faculty members, predictably led by a former Israeli professor, had sent out e-mails protesting the granting of a platform to a representative of the "Nazi, war-criminal" state..." (emphasis added...note that phrase, protesting the granting of a platform) Sharansky was also assaulted by a Rutgers student who plastered him in the face with a pie.
One of the most upsetting events for Sharansky, though, occured on the campus of Harvard University. "During a frank and friendly conversation with a group of Jewish students at Harvard University, one student admitted to me that she was afraid — afraid to express support for Israel, afraid to take part in pro-Israel organizations, afraid to be identified. The mood on campus had turned so anti-Israel that she was afraid that her open identification could cost her, damaging her grades and her academic future. That her professors, who control her final grades, were likely to view such activism unkindly, and that the risk was too great."
And what classes was this student taking, such that she was afraid of professorial retaliation for pro-Israel views? Was it the normal centers of campus leftism--English, sociology, and such? No--she is a student in the Harvard Business School. The leftist domination of the campus must be very pervasive indeed if even B-school students are afraid to deviate from the "progressive" party line.
"At first I thought this must be an individual case, particular to this student," Sharansky continues. "I thought her fears were exaggerated. But my conversations with other students at various universities made it clear that her feelings are widespread, that the situation on campuses in the United States and Canada is more serious than we think. And this is truly frightening."
Frightening indeed. It's often been said that the univerisity today is "an island of tyranny in a sea of freedom." But the pervasive and continuing assault on free speech and free thought, underway on campus after campus, must inevitably have an effect on the larger society.
I also think this student, and others like her, need to look at their own behavior. It's probably true that by expressing pro-Israel views, she would be taking risks of social and professorial retaliation. But, in the spectrum of risks that people can take, how significant are these risks, actually? She is in the B-school...this presumably means she is going into business. Business is, to a significant extent, about risk...rational risk, hopefully, but risk nonetheless. Will she have the courage to stick up for a project or product in which she believes, but which has come under attack by influential people within the corporation? Will she have the courage to leave a relatively-secure position and do something truly entrepreneurial? Will she have the courage, if she ever becomes a senior executive, to make the bet-your-company decision when it needs to be made?
Courage is a muscle that grows with use. There is no better time to start than the present.
(hat tip: scsu scholars)
7:40 AM
Saturday, October 25, 2003
LNG FOR CHINA
China and Australia are putting together a $21B (US dollars) deal for natural gas supply. The gas will originate in Australia's Gorgon field and will be shipped to China in liquified form. This is on top of an earlier China-Australia gas deal, signed last year. China will be building new LNG (liquified natural gas) terminals to receive the shipments. (Information from Financial Times)
As big as this deal is, it is a drop in the bucket in terms of China's overall energy needs. The country is hoping to achieve the sourcing of 7-8% of its energy needs from LNG by 2020, thereby displacing some of its vast coal consumption.
As China further industrializes, the impact on commodity markets around the world is becoming quite significant (see also my earlier post on Chinese demand for shipping capacity). I think we are likely to see significant impacts from India, as well.
An interesting historical note...in the early days of the oil industry, China was a major source of demand--thanks in part to clever tactics by Standard Oil Company, which heavily promoted its Mei Foo kerosene-burning lamps. (The phrase means "beautiful companion.")
8:17 PM
TODAY'S PROTESTS
Michelle is watching the "anti-war" protests on C-SPAN.
By her count, it took 13 minutes before the word "zionist" was first used.
I feel fairly confident it wasn't being used in a complimentary way.
11:10 AM
Friday, October 24, 2003
BLOGIVERSARY
Photon Courier is one year old today.
2:47 PM
Wednesday, October 22, 2003
DUMB COMPANY TRICKS
Call Center Clownishness
Call a company today, and--when you actually get through to a human being--you are likely to hear something like this:
"Good morning, thank you for calling Universal Global Entities Inc, the company where tomorrow is always sunnier than yesterday. My name is Tiffany, how may I assist you today?"
You can be sure that Tiffany did not think up these words on her own; every word of it was pre-scripted for her. And the person doing the scripting obviously feels that these words are very important. Because in times of peak call volume--when people are waiting and becoming irritated--she still says it all. She is not allowed the discretion to shorten the greeting in order to keep people waiting for shorter periods of time.
There is a strong trend toward complete pre-scripting of the words and actions of call center people. It seems to be getting worse. Product and brand managers will want to use these messages to get their particular products promoted; HR managers and consultants of various types will want to use them to hype their current buzzwords and programs. So, very soon, you may hear:
"Good morning, thank you for calling Universal Global Entities Inc, the company where tomorrow is always sunnier than yesterday. Be sure to ask me about our new Gerbilator 5000, a major advance in Gerbilator Technology. My name is Tiffany, and I am empowered to act in an innovative and entrepreneurial way to serve you with the excellence you deserve. How may I assist you today?"
It doesn't work. The attempt to pre-script everything demoralizes call center people, irritates customers, and wastes everybody's time, thereby raising costs. It damages customer relationships by missing the opportunity of establishing a real relationship, however brief, between two actual human beings. It causes people to tune out the blather, and may well cost you an opportunity to actually sell something. It is an inappropriate and inept application of Taylorist principles, at a time when actual manufacturing operations (for which these principles were originally created) have been tending to move away from strict Taylorism.
The focus should be on handling routine transactions via voice-response systems and via the web. This means that many of the transactions which reach the call center people will be non-routine and will require some level of human judgment. You want call center people who are capable of exercising such judgment, not human beings reduced entirely to the level of robots.
This is not to say that you don't need policies, automated support systems, etc. But for goodness sake--leave the people some discretion about the words that they say.
8:50 AM
ABOUT TERRORIST SYMPATHIZERS
In Leonard Cohen's enigmatic poem The Captain, there appear the following lines:
I know that you have suffered, lad,
But suffer this awhile:
Whatever makes a soldier sad
Will make a killer smile
I'm not sure exactly what Cohen meant by these lines...but I was reminded of them about a year ago, when I saw a certain vile photograph. The photo showed "anti-war" protestors in a European city. They were carrying signs that said no war--and they were almost unclothed, except for "suicide belts" of mock dynamite--in obvious "solidarity" with terrorist mass murderers.
And I've been reminded of these lines repeatedly ever since. More and more, it seems that those who claim to be against war and for "peace" are the very same people who excuse and even glamorize acts of terror against innocent people. These people seem to congregate especially in academia (see post below). They loathe those who fight on behalf of the policy of a state, even in clear self-defense ("soldiers"), but feel positively about those who murder in fits of apocalyptic rage ("killers").
Many of those who commit these acts of terror--and those who send them out--clearly take pleasure in the act of killing ("make a killer smile"). It is not for them an unfortunate side-effect; it is the very purpose of the act and the thing that gives meaning to their lives.
Are the academic apologists for terror so naive that they don't understand this--or are they, at some psychological level, the same kind of personalities represented by the terrorists themselves?
8:27 AM
Monday, October 20, 2003
ACADEMICS AND MASS MURDER
Chronicle of Higher Education has a colloquy on the subject of whether "suicide bombings" (aka deliberate mass murder of innocent civilians) can be morally justified..and whether attacks against Israelis should be "considered differently" than the September 11 attacks and the attacks against military and police forces in Iraq.
I have no words right now. Just go and read it.
Click "join the debate" if you want to participate in the discussion. Comments at this site are reviewed before posting, so expect a delay before your comment appears on the thread.
8:51 AM
Friday, October 17, 2003
FAILURE, 1946
Jessica's Well has uncovered a Life magazine article from 1946--shortly after the Allied victory in WWII--in which John Dos Passos writes:
"Never has American prestige in Europe been lower"
"One section of the population of Europe looked to us for salvation and another looked to the Soviet Union. Wherever the people have endured either the American armies or the Russian armies both hopes have been bitterly disappointed."
"The taste of victory had gone sour in the mouth of every thoughtful American I met."
...and, most stunningly: "We have swept away Hitlerism, but a great many Europeans feel that the cure has been worse than the disease"
We now know, of course, that the problems of which Dos Passos wrote--widespread hunger, corruption and the black market--would turn out to be temporary ones, and that Europe was on the verge of reconstruction and economic prosperity. And surely at the time there were many people wiser than Dos Passos, who understood that the problems--however terrible--could be overcome with good policies and good leadership. An epidemic of retroactive defeatism--which seems to me to be the tone of the article--would not have helped anything.
There are obvious parallels between Dos Passos' article and much of today's commentary about the situation in Iraq.
Many writers and journalists are very good at pointing out problems; they are much less good at understanding how problems are overcome and how progress is made.
3:28 PM
THOUGHTS ON BLOGGING
Jay Rosen has some thoughts on blogging as a journalistic form...some fairly insightful points, I think.
3:01 PM
Thursday, October 16, 2003
WOW!
Even if you follow the markets closely and read the financial press regularly, I'll bet you don't know about this index:
The Baltic Dry Index.
And it's quadrupled in the past year, increasing 62% in the last three weeks alone. This from an article in Monday's Financial Times.
The Baltic Dry Index is an index of ocean freight rates. A "cape-size" bulk carrier (iron ore, coal) now costs $73000/day to charter, compared with historical rates of $6000-$25000/day. The increase is being largely driven by China's increasing demand for ore and coal to feed its steel industry. Interestingly, iron ore can be bought in Brazil for $20/tonne, but costs $34/tonne to transport to China. Shipping capacity has also been in demand due to the hot summer weather in Europe (coal for electricity production), and larger-than-typical grain exports from the U.S. and Canada are also expected to play are role. New vessels won't help much in the short term: shipyard capacity is largely already utilized.
And although the FT doesn't mention it, I would expect the growing natural gas shortage to further exacerbate the situation. Insufficiency of domestic supplies will increase demand for the construction of LNG (liquified natural gas) ships, further driving shipyard utilization. Construction of these specialized vessels will probably represent only a small portion of the total shipbuilding capacity, but in a tightly-constrained situation could still have a real impact.
9:03 AM
Tuesday, October 14, 2003
PHILIP QUEEG PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL
A few days ago, I contrasted the rigid approach taken by many school administrators with the flexible leadership style recommended by a U.S. Navy captain in his recent book.
But the style preferred by many administrators does have certain similarities to that of another U.S. Navy captain--albeit a totally fictional one.
In Herman Wouk's WWII novel The Caine Mutine, an insecure and rigid man is placed in command of a destroyer-minesweeper. Although the Caine has an experienced crew, things begin to go wrong almost immediately. While navigating through fog, Capt Queeg orders a right turn. The helmsman, an excellent sailor, knows that the course out of the harbor is 220 degrees, and he has just heard the captain confirm that with the navigator. So when his gyrocompass indicates that the ship has turned far enough, he begins straightening the wheel and announces:
"Steadying up on 220, sir".
"WHAT?" yelled Queeg. He dived into the pilothouse. "Who gave you the order to steady up?"
"Sir, I thought--"
"You thought! You thought! You're not being paid to think!" the captain screeched. "You just do as you're goddamn told and don't go thinking--please!"
Queeg orders the helmsman relived and insists on "an experienced man at the wheel," despite the plea of the executive officer that the sailor who was just relieved was, in fact, the best helmsman aboard Caine.
I see a more than casual similarity here to the case of the high school student who was expelled for letting another asthmatic student use his inhaler which she was having an attack. In both cases, the individual is trying to do the right thing--the student to possibly save the girl's life and certainly to save her from a frightening experience; the helmsman to protect the ship (which was operating in a narrow channel) and to make operations go smoothly. In both cases, they are condemned by authority which seems more concerned about protecting the hierarchy of authority and the rules of procedure than about doing what needs to be done.
Treating people like this has repercussions. In the novel, Caine is assigned to target-towing duty for a live-firing exercise. Stilwell, the same helmsman who Queeg had chastised for thinking, is again at the wheel. With the exercise complete, Queeg orders:
Right standard rudder
Stilwell spins the wheel to the right. Normally, Queeg would have ordered him to steady up when the ship had reached the desired course. But the captain has been distracted: he has observed a man with his shirttail hanging out--something that grievously offends his sense of naval propriety. While he is harranguing about this situation, the ship continues turning. With the rudder at right standard, it will continue in a complete circle--and, since it is towing a target, it will cut its own towline as it passes over it.
A week earlier, Stilwell would have brought this situation to the captain's attention. But not now, not after being screamed at for showing thought. He holds right standard rudder as the Caine indeed circles around and cuts its towline.
The rigid approach of many school administrators serves, I fear, to turn kids who could have been Stilwell before--alert, responsible, concerned--into Stilwell after--"I just do what I'm told." Yes, kids of particularly strong character will be relatively immune--but there will be many who--subjected to years of Queeg-like treatment--will not be.
Following the cutting of the tow rope (and consequent loss of an expensive target), Queeg is interviewed by an older and more senior captain, who is investigating the incident. At the end of the discussion, the older man has some advice:
"If I were you, Commander, I'd worry a little less about making mistakes, and a little more about doing the most sensible and useful thing that occurs to you in any given circumstances."
Excellent advice--which Queeg, of course, fails to take--and I'm afraid many school administrators will fail to take it, too.
1:52 PM
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